# Venezuela: Oil, Power and Crisis > On 25 October 2026 the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela, which has been led by an acting president since US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January. This film explains the century behind it: the oil found under Lake Maracaibo, the founding of OPEC and the nationalisation of 1976, the ‘oil curse’ economists call Dutch disease, Hugo Chávez's oil-funded revolution, the collapse after 2014 and the arguments over its causes, the exodus of more than seven million people, the disputed elections, and the questions still open today. Interactive film: https://www.planetpast.com/stories/venezuela-oil-and-crisis/ Publisher: PlanetPast (https://www.planetpast.com/) · d => T('readPublished', l, { d: dateIn(d, l) }) 2026-10-26 · Society, History ## Prologue ### Venezuela: oil, power and crisis *Society · History* The most oil on Earth, and one of the deepest economic falls. On Sunday the twenty-fifth of October 2026, the opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela after months in exile. "I am here," she wrote. "With you." Since January, when United States forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, the country has been led by an acting president. No election date has been set. How did the country with the most oil on Earth come to this? The answer begins underground. > “I am here. With you.” (María Corina Machado on social media, 25 October 2026 (AP)) - Jul 2024: Disputed presidential election - Oct 2025: Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Machado - Jan 2026: US forces capture Maduro; Delcy Rodríguez acting president - 25 Oct 2026: Machado returns; no election date set - **~303 bn**: barrels of proven oil reserves, the world’s largest (2023) Prologue #### A return, and an open question PBS NewsHour / AP: María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela on Sunday 25 October 2026, her first appearance in the country since December, announcing “I am here. With you.” Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, a longtime Maduro ally backed by the Trump administration, has led the country since US forces captured Maduro in January 2026; no election date has been set. Machado and her allies demand one; US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, say economic stabilisation and rebuilding institutions must come first. Al Jazeera: Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, about 303 billion barrels as of 2023. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [PBS NewsHour / AP (25 Oct 2026): Venezuela’s opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/venezuelas-opposition-leader-machado-returns-after-months-in-exile); [Al Jazeera (8 Jan 2026): what resources does Venezuela have, apart from the world’s most oil?](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/8/what-resources-does-venezuela-have-apart-from-the-worlds-most) ## Chapter I · Black gold ### Black gold *Chapter I* A lake, a well, a gusher. In April 1914, a well called Zumaque One struck oil near Lake Maracaibo, in Venezuela's north-west. Eight years later, a well at Cabimas blew out, spraying oil into the sky. Foreign companies poured in. By 1928 Venezuela was the world's leading oil exporter, and farming, once the heart of the economy, fell sharply. By the late 1930s only the United States and the Soviet Union produced more. ![A gusher at a wooden derrick. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/09/095c1aed90aed6f7.jpg) - 15 Apr 1914: Zumaque I, first important field - 1922: Barroso No. 2 blows out at Cabimas - 1928: World’s leading oil exporter - 1945: Close to 1 million barrels a day - **No. 3**: producer, after the US and the USSR - **No. 1**: exporter Chapter I · Black gold #### Oil under the lake Wikipedia, history of the Venezuelan oil industry: on 15 April 1914 the Zumaque I well was completed in the Maracaibo Basin, the first important Venezuelan oilfield. The 1922 blowout of the Barroso No. 2 well at Cabimas marked the start of Venezuela’s modern history as a major producer. By 1928 Venezuela was the world’s leading oil exporter; from 1929 oil dominated the economy and agricultural production dropped sharply. By the late 1930s Venezuela was the third-largest producer, behind the US and the USSR, and the leading exporter. By 1945 production was close to 1 million barrels a day. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Wikipedia: history of the Venezuelan oil industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry) ### Who should get the money? A law in 1943 split oil profits roughly fifty-fifty between the state and the foreign companies. Part of the state's share came as a royalty of one sixth of the oil produced, and the deal held, largely unchanged, until 1976. Then, in September 1960, Venezuela's oil minister Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo met his counterparts from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in Baghdad. Together they founded OPEC, to give oil-exporting countries a stronger hand. - **50 : 50**: state and companies, roughly - **40 years**: length of the concessions - **16⅔%**: of the oil produced, one sixth - **1943–1976**: the law stays largely unchanged ![A conference table, set for five delegations. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/a1/a10ff149a2eca93d.jpg) - Venezuela - Iran - Iraq - Kuwait - Saudi Arabia Chapter I · Black gold #### Fifty-fifty, then OPEC Wikipedia, history of the Venezuelan oil industry: the Hydrocarbons Law of 1943 split oil wealth roughly 50–50 between the government and the companies, with 40-year concessions and a royalty of 16⅔%; it stayed largely unchanged until 1976. In September 1960 Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo proposed the founding of OPEC in Baghdad, together with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Wikipedia: history of the Venezuelan oil industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry) ### When world oil prices leapt in 1973, Venezuela's government revenue quadrupled in two years. On the first of January 1976, the government nationalised the industry. The foreign companies were replaced by a state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, which became the country's economic engine. From 1976 to 1992, the government kept about seventy-one percent of the company's income. - **× 4**: government revenue, 1972 to 1974 - **PDVSA**: state oil company replaces the foreign concessions ![A tanker at a loading terminal. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/91/91128cccc8ba81d9.jpg) - **~71%**: of PDVSA’s income kept by the state, 1976–1992 - **~36%**: kept by the state, 1993–2000 Chapter I · Black gold #### Nationalisation Wikipedia, history of the Venezuelan oil industry: after the 1973 oil crisis, Venezuelan government revenues quadrupled between 1972 and 1974. Nationalisation took effect on 1 January 1976, creating PDVSA; foreign concessionaires were replaced by Venezuelan state companies. From 1976 to 1992 the government kept about 71% of PDVSA’s income; from 1993 to 2000 PDVSA kept about 64%, leaving the government 36%. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Wikipedia: history of the Venezuelan oil industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry) ## Chapter II · The oil curse ### The oil curse *Chapter II* Why a resource boom can shrink everything else. Economists have a name for a trap that oil can set: Dutch disease, after what happened when the Netherlands found natural gas. A flood of export money pushes up the value of the currency and the prices of everything at home. A strong currency makes imports cheap and other exports expensive, so factories and farms can no longer compete, so workers and money move into oil and local services. When prices fall, the country finds it depends on one product. Venezuela's oil boom of the seventies was followed by a glut and falling prices in the eighties. - A booming export sector - A lagging traditional export sector - A sector selling at home - The real exchange rate rises - Exports become less competitive - Labour and capital shift to the boom ![A refinery on the Caribbean coast at night. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/f9/f95af8187638e718.jpg) - Save temporary windfalls, for example in an oil fund - Raise productivity, retrain workers - Diversify exports Chapter II · The oil curse #### Dutch disease IMF, Finance & Development: “Dutch disease” describes how a large inflow of foreign currency, commonly from a resource discovery, can harm an economy; it is named after the Netherlands, where gas discoveries in the 1960s led to a stronger guilder. Spending the inflow raises domestic prices and the real exchange rate, weakening the competitiveness of other exports (the spending effect), while capital and labour shift towards the booming sector and the non-traded sector (the resource movement effect). Remedies include saving temporary windfalls, for instance in an oil trust fund, raising productivity, retraining workers and diversifying exports. Wikipedia, history of the Venezuelan oil industry: in the 1980s an oil glut pushed prices down. Try it: “Boom” and “Bust” show, schematically, how money flows when oil prices rise and fall. The bars are illustrative, not data. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [IMF Finance & Development, Back to Basics: Dutch disease, wealth managed unwisely](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/back-to-basics/dutch-disease/index.md); [Wikipedia: history of the Venezuelan oil industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry) ## Chapter III · Chávez ### Chávez *Chapter III* Oil money for a revolution. In 1992 an army officer, Hugo Chávez, led a failed coup. He was jailed, pardoned, and in December 1998 elected president with fifty-six percent of the vote. Oil money funded social missions in education and housing. Over the decade from 1995 to 2005, according to the World Bank, extreme poverty fell from thirty-two to nineteen percent. Critics accused him of concentrating power and of using oil to buy influence abroad. - **56%**: of the vote for Hugo Chávez ![A rally in a city square, seen from afar. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/71/717114fa4f61b1a1.jpg) - 1995: 32% - 2005: 19% - Supporters: oil wealth finally reached the poor - Critics: power concentrated, oil used for influence Chapter III · Chávez #### Chávez Al Jazeera obituary: in 1992 Chávez led a failed coup that killed 18 people; he was pardoned in 1994 and first elected president in December 1998 with 56% of the vote. He created “social missions” funded by oil revenue, with large-scale programmes for education and housing. According to the World Bank, poverty fell by 30% between 1995 and 2005 and extreme poverty fell from 32% to 19%. Critics accused him of using oil to increase diplomatic influence. Wikipedia, crisis in Venezuela: most observers cite anti-democratic governance and authoritarianism among the causes of the later crisis; supporters of Chávez and Maduro reject that account. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Al Jazeera (6 Mar 2013): obituary, Hugo Chávez](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2013/3/6/obituary-hugo-chavez); [Wikipedia: crisis in Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela) ### In April 2002 Chávez was briefly overthrown in a coup attempt. At the end of that year, a strike at the state oil company nearly stopped production for over two months, and the government fired twelve thousand of its employees. Meanwhile the economy leaned ever harder on oil. Its share of exports rose from seventy-seven percent in 1997 to ninety-six percent in 2012. Pick a year. Nearly half of the state's revenue came from a single commodity. - Apr 2002: Coup attempt; Chávez back within days - Dec 2002–2003: PDVSA strike, about two and a half months - 2003: 12,000 PDVSA employees fired - 1997: 77% - 2006: 89% - 2012: 96% - **96%**: of exports - **~½**: of fiscal revenue Chapter III · Chávez #### Leaning on oil Wikipedia, history of the Venezuelan oil industry: in April 2002 Chávez was briefly overthrown in a coup attempt. From December 2002 to early 2003 a strike at PDVSA nearly halted oil production for about two and a half months, and the government fired 12,000 PDVSA employees. Oil’s share of state income rose from 51% to 56% between 2000 and 2006, and its share of exports from 77% (1997) to 89% (2006); in 2012, according to the World Bank, oil made up 96% of exports and nearly half of fiscal revenue. Try it: pick a year to raise the oil share of exports on the map. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Wikipedia: history of the Venezuelan oil industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry) ## Chapter IV · Collapse ### Collapse *Chapter IV* One of the deepest peacetime falls on record. Chávez died of cancer in March 2013, and Nicolás Maduro succeeded him. A year later, in mid-2014, world oil prices began to fall. What followed was extraordinary. Shortages, already growing since 2010, spread. Inflation reached eight hundred percent in 2016 and then turned into hyperinflation. By 2019 the International Monetary Fund expected the economy to have shrunk by more than sixty percent since 2013, among the deepest falls anywhere in fifty years, and the only one of them not caused by war or disaster. - Mar 2013: Chávez dies; Maduro succeeds him - Jun 2014: Oil prices begin to fall - 2016: Inflation reaches 800% (Reuters) ![Empty supermarket shelves. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/1e/1ea7a5d250e661ef.jpg) ![Bundles of banknotes beside a bag of rice. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/e0/e0eca8b07208e807.jpg) - **> 60%**: expected fall in GDP since 2013 - **1 of 5**: deepest five-year falls in 50 years, the only one not tied to war or disaster Chapter IV · Collapse #### A peacetime collapse Al Jazeera: Chávez died in a Caracas hospital in March 2013 after a nearly two-year battle with cancer. Wikipedia, history of the Venezuelan oil industry: the oil price decline began in June 2014. Wikipedia, crisis in Venezuela: shortages grew from 2010; annual inflation reached 800% in 2016 (Reuters); real GDP fell an estimated 24.3% from 2014 to 2016. VOA / AP, 29 July 2019: the IMF projected that the cumulative contraction since 2013 would surpass 60%, among the deepest five-year contractions recorded worldwide in the last half century and the only one of the top five not linked to armed conflict or natural disaster. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Al Jazeera (6 Mar 2013): obituary, Hugo Chávez](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2013/3/6/obituary-hugo-chavez); [Wikipedia: history of the Venezuelan oil industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry); [Wikipedia: crisis in Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela); [VOA / AP (29 Jul 2019): IMF says Venezuela’s economic decline among most severe globally](https://voanews.com/a/economy-business_imf-venezuelas-economic-decline-among-most-severe-globally/6172839.html) ### Why did it happen? Most observers point to economic mismanagement, price controls that became unsustainable, seizures of businesses, corruption, and a deep dependence on oil. The government and its supporters blame an "economic war" waged by business elites, the fall in oil prices, and United States sanctions, tightened from 2017. Compare the two accounts. Economists Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs estimated that sanctions cost tens of thousands of lives; other economists criticised their method. Either way, oil output fell: from about two point four million barrels a day in 2008 to under eight hundred thousand in 2023. - Economic mismanagement and price controls - Seizures of businesses - Corruption and authoritarianism - High dependence on oil - An “economic war” by business elites - The fall in oil prices - US sanctions, from 2017 - **~40,000**: excess deaths in 2017–18 blamed on sanctions by Weisbrot and Sachs; other economists dispute the method ![An idle pumpjack on an overgrown plain. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/15/15f9a64c70756eaa.jpg) - 2008: 2,394 - Oct 2017: 1,863 - 2023: 783 - 2024: 952 Chapter IV · Collapse #### Two accounts of the crisis Wikipedia, crisis in Venezuela: most observers cite anti-democratic governance, corruption, authoritarianism, human rights violations, high oil dependence and gross economic mismanagement; price controls became unsustainable, and the government seized businesses it accused of price gouging. Supporters of Chávez and Maduro blamed an “economic war”, falling oil prices, international sanctions and the business elite. The US extended sanctions in 2017; economists Weisbrot and Sachs (2019) estimated a $38 billion loss from 2016 to 2019 and about 40,000 excess deaths in 2017–18 from them, a methodology other economists criticised. Wikipedia, history of the Venezuelan oil industry: output was 2,394,020 barrels a day in 2008 and 1.863 million in October 2017. Al Jazeera (PDVSA results reported by OPEC): 783,000 a day in 2023 and 952,000 in 2024. Try it: switch between the two accounts. Each is presented in its own terms; the film does not weigh them. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Wikipedia: crisis in Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela); [Wikipedia: history of the Venezuelan oil industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry); [Al Jazeera (8 Jan 2026): what resources does Venezuela have, apart from the world’s most oil?](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/8/what-resources-does-venezuela-have-apart-from-the-worlds-most) ### People began to leave. By April 2024, according to the UN refugee agency, more than seven point seven million Venezuelans had left since 2014, most of them to other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. By 2021, about one in five Venezuelans had already gone. A university survey found that by 2021, more than nine in ten people still living in Venezuela were in income poverty. - **7.7 million+**: Venezuelans who have left since 2014 ![People with suitcases cross a border bridge. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/15/1594b66ed353b76e.jpg) - In poverty: 94.5% - In extreme poverty: 76.6% Chapter IV · Collapse #### The exodus USA for UNHCR: more than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled or left the country since 2014 (figures as of April 2024). Wikipedia, crisis in Venezuela: 5.4 million people, about 20% of the population, had left by 2021; by 2021, 94.5% of the population was in poverty and 76.6% in extreme poverty, the highest ever recorded by the ENCOVI living-conditions survey of the Andrés Bello Catholic University. On screen: the arrows show where most people went, schematically; they are not drawn to scale. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [USA for UNHCR: Venezuela crisis](https://admin.unrefugees.org/emergencies/venezuela); [Wikipedia: crisis in Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela) ## Chapter V · Disputed power ### Disputed power *Chapter V* Two results for one election. Elections became the battleground. In 2018 Maduro was declared the winner of a vote that many called invalid, and in 2019 the opposition-led National Assembly named its own leader, Juan Guaidó, acting president. In 2024 Machado was barred from running, and Edmundo González stood in her place. The electoral council, the CNE, declared Maduro the winner. The opposition published tally sheets showing González far ahead. Compare the two results. The Supreme Court certified Maduro's win and called the opposition tallies forged. Observers from the UN and the Carter Center said the official result lacked credibility. According to AP, more than two thousand people were detained after the vote. In October 2025 Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. - May 2018: Maduro declared winner; major opposition parties banned - Jan 2019: National Assembly names Juan Guaidó acting president - 28 Jul 2024: Presidential election: two rival results - CNE: Maduro: 51.2% - CNE: González: 44.2% - Opposition tallies: González: 67% - Opposition tallies: Maduro: 30% ![Printed tallies photographed at a polling station. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/d5/d587f130ca2c763f.jpg) - Supreme Court: Maduro won; opposition tallies forged - Opposition: its tallies show González won - UN and Carter Center observers: official result lacked credibility - **Nobel**: Peace Prize to María Corina Machado, presented in Oslo in December Chapter V · Disputed power #### Two results for one election Wikipedia, crisis in Venezuela: Maduro called the 2018 election four months early; several major opposition parties were banned and many said the vote was invalid. The National Assembly declared the result invalid and named its president, Juan Guaidó, acting president in 2019. US Congressional Research Service (August 2024): in the election of 28 July 2024 the CNE declared Maduro the winner with 51.2% to González’s 44.2% without releasing official vote counts; opposition precinct tallies showed González with 67% and Maduro with 30%. China, Russia, Cuba and Iran congratulated Maduro. PBS / AP: Machado won the 2023 opposition primary but was barred from running; over 2,000 people were detained after the vote. AP (22 August 2024): the Supreme Court certified Maduro’s win and found the tallies published online forged; the government claimed, without evidence, that a foreign cyberattack delayed the count; UN and Carter Center observers said the announced results lacked credibility. NPR: the Nobel Peace Prize was announced on 10 October 2025; her daughter accepted it on her behalf in Oslo on 10 December. Try it: switch between the result declared by the CNE and the result in the opposition’s published tallies. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Wikipedia: crisis in Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela); [US Congressional Research Service (2024): Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/IN12354.html); [AP via News4Jax (22 Aug 2024): Venezuela’s Supreme Court certifies Maduro’s claims that he won the presidential election](https://www.news4jax.com/news/world/2024/08/22/venezuelas-supreme-court-certifies-maduros-claims-that-he-won-presidential-election/); [PBS NewsHour / AP (25 Oct 2026): Venezuela’s opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/venezuelas-opposition-leader-machado-returns-after-months-in-exile); [NPR via Michigan Public (10 Dec 2025): the daughter of Venezuela’s Machado accepts the Nobel Peace Prize in her absence](https://www.michiganpublic.org/2025-12-10/the-daughter-of-venezuelas-machado-accepts-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-her-absence) ### On the third of January 2026, United States forces struck Caracas and captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. He was flown to New York to face drug charges, which he denies. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as acting president. She called the operation a violation of the UN Charter, but she has governed since with the backing of the Trump administration. The court allowed her up to ninety days, extendable by ninety more. She has stayed beyond that without the extension being voted. - **Captured**: Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores, taken to New York ![A colonial-era square on a quiet morning. AI-generated still.](https://assets.planetpast.com/a/a3/a3a691f9ecbff379.jpg) - Rodríguez: a violation of the UN Charter - Trump: the US would “run” Venezuela during a transition - Machado: González should take up his mandate - **90 + 90 days**: allowed by the court, the second if the assembly agrees - **Not voted**: the extension, as of October 2026 Chapter V · Disputed power #### January 2026 Wikipedia, crisis in Venezuela: on 3 January 2026 a US intervention resulted in Maduro’s capture and Delcy Rodríguez assuming the presidency. NPR (4 January 2026): US forces captured Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in an overnight strike on Caracas; the Supreme Court swore in Rodríguez as acting president; she called the operation a violation of the UN Charter and demanded their release; President Trump said the US would “run the country” until a transition; Machado called on Edmundo González to take up his mandate. PBS / AP: Maduro was taken to New York on drug-related charges, which he denies; the Trump administration backed Rodríguez’s succession; the court allowed up to 90 days as acting president, extendable by the National Assembly for 90 more, and she has stayed beyond that without the assembly voting an extension. In September 2026 she told the UN General Assembly that Venezuelans would decide the “right moment” for the next election. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [Wikipedia: crisis in Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela); [NPR via Michigan Public (4 Jan 2026): Venezuela opposition in limbo as the world wonders who is in charge](https://www.michiganpublic.org/2026-01-04/venezuela-opposition-in-limbo-as-the-world-wonders-who-is-in-charge); [PBS NewsHour / AP (25 Oct 2026): Venezuela’s opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/venezuelas-opposition-leader-machado-returns-after-months-in-exile) ### Now Machado and her allies demand an election date. United States officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, say the economy and institutions, such as the courts and the electoral council, must be rebuilt first. Rubio called Machado's safe return a result of reconciliation talks backed by Washington. Rodríguez told the UN in September that Venezuelans would decide the right moment for the next election. Meanwhile, in late 2025, before a US blockade, most of Venezuela's oil exports went to China. - Opposition: set an election date now - US officials: stabilise the economy and rebuild institutions first - Rodríguez: Venezuelans will decide the “right moment” > Venezuelans will decide the “right moment” for the next election. (Acting President Delcy Rodríguez at the UN General Assembly, September 2026 (as reported by AP)) - China: 81.7% - United States: 15.8% - Cuba: ~2.5% Chapter V · Disputed power #### Where things stand PBS / AP (25 October 2026): no election date has been set; Machado and her allies demand one; US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, say economic stabilisation and institutional rebuilding, including the courts and the electoral council, must come first. Rubio said her safe return resulted from US-supported reconciliation talks. Al Jazeera: in November 2025, before the US military blockade that began in December, Venezuela exported 952,000 barrels a day, about 81.7% to China, 15.8% to the US and nearly 2.5% to Cuba; most reserves lie in the Orinoco Belt, controlled by PDVSA. The map is a teaching model: borders come from Natural Earth; oil fields, flows and the bars rising from the map are drawn schematically from the figures in the sources. Sources: [PBS NewsHour / AP (25 Oct 2026): Venezuela’s opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/venezuelas-opposition-leader-machado-returns-after-months-in-exile); [Al Jazeera (8 Jan 2026): what resources does Venezuela have, apart from the world’s most oil?](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/8/what-resources-does-venezuela-have-apart-from-the-worlds-most) ## Epilogue ### When will Venezuelans vote again? Will the millions who left come home? And can the oil, this time, be made to serve everyone? Those questions are still open. For now, the country with the most oil on Earth is still waiting to learn who will decide how it is used. - 1914: Oil at Lake Maracaibo - 1960: OPEC founded - 1976: Oil nationalised; PDVSA - 1998: Chávez elected - 2014: Oil prices fall; collapse begins - 2024: Disputed election - 2026: Maduro captured; Machado returns - When is the next election? - Will the 7.7 million return? - Can the oil serve everyone? - **~303 bn barrels**: the world’s largest proven reserves Epilogue · Sources #### Sources Every fact in this film comes from the sources below, and contested claims are attributed to those who make them. The chapter stills and pictures are AI-generated illustrations and show no real people. The map uses Natural Earth borders; oil fields, flows and the bars on the map are drawn schematically. Sources: [PBS NewsHour / AP (25 Oct 2026): Venezuela’s opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/venezuelas-opposition-leader-machado-returns-after-months-in-exile); [NPR via Michigan Public (4 Jan 2026): Venezuela opposition in limbo as the world wonders who is in charge](https://www.michiganpublic.org/2026-01-04/venezuela-opposition-in-limbo-as-the-world-wonders-who-is-in-charge); [Al Jazeera (8 Jan 2026): what resources does Venezuela have, apart from the world’s most oil?](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/8/what-resources-does-venezuela-have-apart-from-the-worlds-most); [Wikipedia: history of the Venezuelan oil industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Venezuelan_oil_industry); [IMF Finance & Development, Back to Basics: Dutch disease, wealth managed unwisely](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/back-to-basics/dutch-disease/index.md); [Al Jazeera (6 Mar 2013): obituary, Hugo Chávez](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2013/3/6/obituary-hugo-chavez); [Wikipedia: crisis in Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela); [VOA / AP (29 Jul 2019): IMF says Venezuela’s economic decline among most severe globally](https://voanews.com/a/economy-business_imf-venezuelas-economic-decline-among-most-severe-globally/6172839.html); [USA for UNHCR: Venezuela crisis](https://admin.unrefugees.org/emergencies/venezuela); [US Congressional Research Service (2024): Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/IN12354.html); [AP via News4Jax (22 Aug 2024): Venezuela’s Supreme Court certifies Maduro’s claims that he won the presidential election](https://www.news4jax.com/news/world/2024/08/22/venezuelas-supreme-court-certifies-maduros-claims-that-he-won-presidential-election/); [NPR via Michigan Public (10 Dec 2025): the daughter of Venezuela’s Machado accepts the Nobel Peace Prize in her absence](https://www.michiganpublic.org/2025-12-10/the-daughter-of-venezuelas-machado-accepts-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-her-absence)